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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:10 pm 
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Gah.... I'm terribad at math. I forgot that Darkin was a Mutineer bringing the possibility that we hit a Mutineer down to 42%. Cannoneer remains the same at 7%, but we no longer have to hit them to stay in the game. Preferable, but not required.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:26 pm 
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Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:11 pm
Posts: 5108
Location: Somewhere between law and chaos.
Current Votes
  • AngelicSongx - FatOldRobot, then TurboPunz
  • Supaaku - TurboPunz
  • Guyperson - AngelicSongx
  • D-vid - TurboPunz, then Undecided
  • Need Runes4 - TurboPunz, then Undecided, then Supaaku, then TurboPunz
  • electronic goat - TurboPunz
  • Potato - TurboPunz
  • TurboPunz - Supaaku

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Popular Lynches
  • TurboPunz - 5 votes, 3 more votes to lynch

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 4:56 am 
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Location: Otaku world
So there are 8 town and 6 mafia left.

For mafia to win, they would only need to have atlease 2 votes from town on any innocent so they can then all bandwagon on that innocent and win.

But for Turbo it has yet to happen, so it seems that Turbo is likely to be mafia. The mafia would have no reason to all vote to lynch Turbo if there are atleast 2 town votes already made on Turbo, except if it results in the mafia losing their own.

But, there is a chance that there might not be 2 or more votes from town on Turbo (if Turbo is innocent), meaning that all (or atleast all but one) those who have their votes currently on Turbo (prior to this post) are mafia.

And based on all the logic provided above, I think it would be safe to rule out those who have changed their votes atleast once (prior to this post) from Turbo this day, so D-Vid and Runes, to an alternative as town.

Tl:dr
>Turbo is likely to be mafia.
>If Turbo is mafia, those who voted to lynch Turbo (prior to this post) are likely to be town, and then we can continue from there.
>D-Vid and Runes are very likely to be town.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 4:59 am 
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I thought so too, but day 4 Turbo did vote for brekk fairly early.
So assuming they didn't try to take suspicion off of themselves by immediately throwing brekk under the bus I think Turbo might be innocent.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 5:02 am 
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If you think Turbo is innocent, then do you think that Angel, Suupaku, electronic Goat and Potato are mafia, or atleast all but one?

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 5:04 am 
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I have no clue. It could be anyone really.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:41 am 
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At this stage in the game, it really doesn't make sense for the Mutineers to hold back on anything. If Turbo was innocent, then he would have been lynched by now and the game would be over. I'm just hoping that he's the Cannoneer, since that gives us a bit of breathing room in that we can miss hitting a Mutineer one time rather than having to lynch correctly every single day.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:54 am 
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jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan
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I think shadowguy makes a lot of sense. Given that sometimes mafia might vote for one of their own to decrease suspicion, it's likely that might have happened with Brekk, too--and like D-vid said, Turbo voted for Brekk fairly early, before he had enough votes for a lynch, right? Mafia might have been counting on Brekk to talk his way out of being lynched.

That being said this is all speculation on my part?? If I was pressed to vote right now it would be for Turbo but I'm still really unsure about this.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 1:14 pm 
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Master of Seduction
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I voted for Brekk because he was acting incredibly scummy, my vote was after his whole percentage rant where he called everyone a moron.

I honestly don't know why I didn't die before. Maybe some of the mutineers were asleep when I was in danger of lynching?
For that matter, they could all log on and kill me now, so I'm confused why they haven't done so already.
If they're planning to make me look scummy, they don't need to considering they can pretty much kill me by themselves.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 1:16 pm 
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What I'm saying is basically to the muties:
If you're trying to make me look scummy, it's working, but in that sense, you're failing at attempting to kill me, because you can just all vote to lynch me and win. Unless everyone who's voted is already a mutie.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 1:31 pm 
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That's the question.
Are some of the ones who voted mutineers?
Probablility says yes.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 5:34 pm 
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Naturally my defense only works if you assume I'm innocent, but then again, so do all defenses in this game.

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:22 pm 
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Location: Himawari will never give up, never hide, never be defeated, never accept evil
I guess if no one is actually going to join me against Angel, I guess I'll switch to the polar wagon to get the day over with. Lynch Turbopunz

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 6:30 pm 
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Location: Himawari will never give up, never hide, never be defeated, never accept evil
*poplar

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 Post subject: Re: Dusty Rum Mutiny - DAY 5
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:15 pm 
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I'm pretty sure I'm not going to be playing the next game if everyone's reason for blindly lynching someone at the most critical point of the game is "lol bandwagon"

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