AWKWARD ZOMBIE

This is not about the individual probability. It is about the collected probability.

If 50% was the entire probability, then throw heads 4 times in a row for me.

flipping a coin and getting tails the first time bodaciously has no bearing on you getting heads or tails the next time

flipping it once doesnt make a 2 sided coin have more or less of one side

its 50% every time

Correct.

Now tell me the odds of flipping a coin 4 times in a row and only getting heads.

Just think of me and creaky as two random castaways floating by in a raft shouting "LYNCH THAT GUY"

What Johnny-three-names is getting at is the combined probability of getting heads repeatedly in succession, which is a dependant variable.

However, such a scenario is only good for calculating the probability of the maximum amount of time the cannoneer will last.
It's a speculation that is not necessary, especially considering that the cannoneer can choose NOT to fire. Therefore, each night is treated as a separate scenario, as the conditions are not the same each time.

The major point I see here is WHY WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THIS.
We don't know who the cannoneer is, so why make all this effort to discuss math, the one thing most of us came here to avoid?

Probability is cumulative, but only when you're making a prediction about statistics. The probability of the cannoneer being found out is 50% chance. Either revealed or not revealed. Mafia isn't about statistics, it's about deception and mind games. The cumulative percentage has no bearing on what's happening -now-, so quit having a fit about it.

I would also kindly thank those not participating to not attempt to sway a vote. Thank you to The Big Cheese for handling that for me.

So far I think it's 2 votes for Sax, and 2 votes for Brekkajern. This seems like one of those "everyone's indecisive and suspicious" days again.

I thought that was the entire point of statistics?

I'm throwing my chips in with Oracle on this one.

Keelhaul Crowbar

Not in-depth statistics like you're trying to push. Just drop it; no parting shots, no crap. Mafia isn't supposed to be about cumulative chance or whatever the fuck. Just take it as it is: half reveal, half not reveal. Trying to put in advanced math and pointless crap just makes the game not fun for everyone. So please, just continue with the game as it is.

Okay, to clarify. Again.

What Brekk said is only relevant before it happens.
So if you say before the game starts "What's the chance of the cannoneer getting exposed if he wants to shoot 3 times?" That includes the probability of all 3 shots, even if he is exposed at the first one.
Now in this very situation, 2 of them have already happened and he was not exposed. So the probability of him getting exposed now is not different from before, just 50%.

Or to use something more practical.
You have a coin, before throwing it the probability to get at least one heads from throwing 3 times is 100% - (50%*50%*50%).
But now you've already thrown it twice and it was tails both times. So the probability of getting heads at least once is just as high as if you were only going to throw it once which is 50% because there is only one throw left where you can possibly get heads.

Any other theories before we start a bandwagon?