AWKWARD ZOMBIE

im awake! last night i sent rum to Brekk

at the same time, we had no trouble from the cannoneer

is this a coincidence, or is this telling?

Possible coincidence. Cannoneer could have just not fired last night. But they already risked exposing themselves once.... why stop when you get a guaranteed kill?

Crowbar could very well be the Cannoneer.

Well, that was a massive waste of a night action...



The chance that the cannoneers identity is revealed increases with every time the ability is used. Once is a 50% gamble, but twice is a 75% gamble. It is quite likely that they are waiting for the opportune moment to fire it again when it doesn't matter if the cannoneer is revealed.

um what

I guess you didn't have probability math then. The probability of the cannoneers identity being revealed increases for every time they fire the cannon. The first time it is 50%. The second shot would be 75% chance and the third would be something like 98% chance. This is just the calculated probability of something happening. The events are independent, so the cannoneer could well shoot all 6 shots without ever being revealed, but the odds of that happening is extremely low.

If you want to look into it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilit ... _treatment

thats not how coin flipping works, sorry

You not understanding it does not mean that it isn't right.

The probability of the cannoneers identity being revealed is 50% in each isolated case, but the more you fire the cannon, the more likely the identity is to be revealed. Sooner or later you will get the other side of the coin. Flipping more often will increase the chance of that happening.

that's kinda complete bullshit. flipping a coin is still 50% and youre just dodging the argument and being shifty and weird as fuck


lynch brekk

I don't even... What?

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index ... 917AAlig9W

is linking to wiki articles and yahoo answers or some bs theory like occams razor your only response in this game like, ever


my vote stands

That was the most amazing rebuttal in the history of the mafia games. I think I have to go back to high school to learn this again. Thank you for knocking some sense into me.

Okay, I think we should stop doing this and instead go back to the most suspicious votes thing okay

Man alive.

Oracle: I wouldn't call the law of probability or Occam's Razor "bullshit theories".

Brekkjern: I don't know why you have such an averse reaction to anyone voting to lynch you, but there's no need to be an arrogant booty about it.

That being said, Brekkjern is as good a lead as any other we have here, so lynch Brekkjern.

I don't really have anything against people voting to lynch me. Go ahead.

What I do have something against is people being straight up rude and not bothering to read my post. The math checks out through several different sources and I could even do it here in the thread. Noffle has been sending me PMs for lectures. The fact remains. This is still high school level math and should not be too difficult to grasp even though full understanding might be difficult. It doesn't help either that English isn't my primary language. I guess I could give it one last shot at explaining it.

One shot:
1/2 = 1/2 chance of remaining undetected

Two shots:
1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 chance of remaining undetected

Three shots:
1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 chance of remaining undetected

Four shots:
1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 chance of remaining undetected

As you can see. For every time you fire the cannon you are twice as unlikely to stay hidden.

I guess I could defend myself with this:

I've been very hesitant to vote and wait until the last half of the day to make a decision.
Should be considerable evidence of that.

I just don't want to defend myself too hard because it usually comes across as a big 'lynch me' sign.
I don't want us to lose the game because of me...

AND FOR THOSE CONFUSED ABOUT THE CANNON.

It's a 50% chance each time he uses it.
That means:

1st: 50%
2nd: 50%
3rd: 50%

It's the old gambling delusion.
The probability is ALWAYS the same.

"If you toss a coin 5 times, four of them being heads, what is the probability of it being heads again?"
50%

The odds are not dependant on the previous results.
Each shot has a 50% of being discovered, and the probability is NOT cumulative.

So the Cannoneer is NOT getting easier to find.

I hope that clears it up for you.