AWKWARD ZOMBIE

I think all town has left are the Gunsmith and Millers.

Mafia still has the Godfather and Lawyer (who's basically useless at this point), if I remember correctly.

Should be Gunsmith, 2 millers, 2 vanilla villagers I think. And mafia has 1 vanilla, godfather and lawyer.

BOOM I knew Cori was mafia. Shame about Runes though - I think I felt like he might have been the doctor a while back, but I alas, I have no gun-giving powers.

Top of my suspicious list right now is Guy, because he was the only one who didn't vote for Cori yesterday.

Close behind him is Tammerath, who didn't vote, and finally Reyo, who did vote for Cori and thus is at the bottom of the list.

Ok so that makes 3 mafia to our 5 townies, giving us the definite advantage. Now all of them would have to have a gun in order to shoot their way to victory, though the gunsmith should still probably stay quiet.

I'll go ahead and go with my previous suspicion comment, since it seemed to work this time, and point my suspicion cannon at angel, guy, Kamak, tam, and myself. Since I know what my own role is, and I wanna trust Kamak, this leads me to believe that the last 3 mafia are angel, guyperson, and tam.

That is all. Since I am still under the suspicion radar, I'll do the respectable thing and let you guys set up the bandwagon.

You think you know all 3 remaining mafia?
A bold move. Though I think this is either a bit naive or just plain trying to get us to lynch an innocent.

The mafia isn't stupid. I haven't seen anyone even try to protect cori. Unless you count Guyperson's voting for you. The other two haven't voted at all but that doesn't say much unfortunately. And I don't think half the mafia would not vote at all when it looks like one of them is almost definitely going to die, so I'd assume at least one or two of the other mafia were in the lynch.

The ones who voted cori, besides Runes who died, are you, me, Kamak, Saint and Turbo.
Now there's an obvious problem there. Most of those are largely considered innocent. It makes sense that most votes against a mafia member would be innocents, but all of them is highly unlikely as it's just too obvious when you look at it.

No, I'm saying it's consistent with the fact that there are 3 mafia members left.

It's not necessarily that I know 100% that they are the last three.

I'll dissect this more.



For one, I'm much more use to the mafia alive than i am dead. Even though I'd be a guaranteed kill, me being alive still tears you guys between me and then, thus creating the chaos of "omg is he innocent or is he guilty". I count it as a victory, a bittersweet victory given the implications, but a victory nonetheless. What's more is I had a fairly minor role in lynching pretty much everyone. The idea to lynch cynic, and Alec came from somewhere else, I simply participated in the voting process, and the decision to lynch cori, though the correct one, was still a passive one that was made for me since it was either me or him.

Besides, as I said before, I phrased it like that because of the comment I made yesterday on who I would suspect based off of the lynching pattern. I suspected cori, and it turned out to be correct. Honestly it would be more illogical for me not to use it now that it's proven to work.



You forget, D-vid, you were on the block of suspicion yourself day 3. You of everyone should appreciate the lack of value that simple suspicions have on your innocence. Suspicion shouldn't warrant guilt, it's the other way around. If I'm guilty because I'm suspicious, then what about you?

You're right, they're not stupid. By this point, we've predicted all sorts of things that the mafia would consistently do, so it only makes sense that they'd split to try and separate themselves. That way if one mafia gets pegged, at least the other still looks innocent. My suspicions are at least based off of data that reaches back to day 3, reducing the. Risk of that having happened.


It should be me saying this part in response to your 2nd paragraph.

By the time I checked on the thread whenever ago, people had finished bandwagoning Cori and the day was over. Never had a chance to change my lynch.

Anyway, five guns have been sent out total this game so far, and only one has gone off, leaving 4 in play. I still don't have one, which means that unless every town has a gun, the mafia has at least one. They can't have 3, because if they did they would just shoot everyone and be over with it. So that leaves three options.

1) The mafia has no guns. We can win this if no more guns are sent out and we choose no lynch every day. I will likely die since I'm the only villager without a gun. Or maybe they'll think I'm playing mindgames with them and never try to get me.

2) The mafia has one gun. They could save the gun for right before the holder gets day lynched, or purposefully have them shoot another mafia to clear their own name. Or wait until a villager gets day lynched, swoop in and hope they don't get revealed, and make that guy look like a mafia who shot as a last resort.

3) The mafia has two guns. They could kill two vills now and stalemate us, but then they'd have to night kill with a 2/3 possibility of killing themselves, assuming they didn't hit the gunholders. So it's more likely they would save their guns for right before they get day lynched.

4) The mafia DOES have 3 guns but didn't consider full frontal assault yet, in which case this post just doomed us all.

I've adjusted my data given what we've found out. Leaving out Cori lynches as evidence.

(same chart for now)

If Kamak is guilty:
D-vid, Reyo, Cori, Guy, Angie, and Tam are likely innocent
was not Hooked Night 1
lynched a known innocent
helped try to lynch D-vid, a likely town.
Likely accomplices (and further assumptions):
Turbo: Suspects Kamak, didn’t kill Crisp, suspicions line up with Kamak
Saint: Is okay with Kamak, may not have been hooked, suspicions line up with Kamak
Runes: Is okay with Turbo, suggested crisp for random lynch, Suspicions line up with Kamak
Kinks: Who killed Crisp?

If Tam is guilty:
Kamak is likely innocent
lynched 2 known innocents
Likely accomplice:
Cori: Suspicions line up with Tam’s
Kinks: Not much to go on

If Angie is guilty:
D-vid, Cori, Runes, and Kamak are likely innocent
lynched a known innocent
helped try to lynch D-vid, a likely town.
Likely accomplice:
Reyo: suspicion (seriously, only 1?) lines up with Angie
Kinks: Not much to go on

Runes is innocent:
Reyo and Tam are likely guilty
Lynched a known innocent (whoops)
Likely towns:
Turbo: killed Crisp, suspicions line up with Runes

If Guy is guilty:
D-vid is likely innocent
Is not a villager (duh)
Lynched 2 known innocents
Helped try to lynch D-vid, a likely town
Is trying to lynch a likely town today
Likely accomplices:
Kamak: was not hooked night 1, likely toss up between Turbo (suspects Kamak and Guy, shot Crisp), Saint (suspicions line up), and Runes (suspicions line up, suggested Crisp as random lynch) as other two mafia, suspicions line up with Guy’s 1 suspicion.
Kinks: Not much information known, problems with last two mafia

Cori is guilty:
D-vid, Saint, Guy, Runes, Angie and Kamak are likely town
Lynched 2 known innocents
No readily available accomplices, though Turbo (suspects Reyo, shot Crisp), Reyo (lynched the same people as Cori), and Tam (kinda trusts Cori, lynched the same people as Cori)are likely starts due to being blank on chart.

Kinks: One of the suspected towns would have to be mafia since Turbo likely isn’t in league with them

If Reyo is guilty:
Kamak is likely innocent
Lynched 2 known innocents
Accomplices:
Not enough information
Kinks: not much information, very low key.

If Saint is guilty:
D-vid, Cori, Angie, and Tam are likely innocent
Was not hooked on Night 4
Helped try to lynch D-vid, a likely town
Accomplices:
Kamak: not hooked night 1, likely teamed up with Turbo (suspects Kamak, shot Crisp) and Runes (suspicions line up, suggested Crisp as random lynch) as other two mafia, suspicions line up with Saint
Kinks: Last two likely mafia are tenuous.

If D-vid is guilty:
Reyo, Guy, Runes, Tam, and Kamak are likely innocent
Lynched a known innocent
Likely accomplices:
Saint: not hooked night 4, likely teamed up with Kamak (not hooked night 1, suspects D-vid, suspects Angie, possibly teamed up with Runes (who D-vid Suspects)), suspects Angie.
Angie: Suspects D-vid, possibly teamed up with Reyo (Suspected by D-vid)
Kinks: Who the hell does D-vid work for (or with)?

If Turbo is guilty (Oh lord):
Reyo, Guy, and Kamak are likely innocent
Did not shoot Crisp (who did?)
Lynched a known innocent
Kinks: No known accomplices, WHO SHOT CRISP?

-------------

According to the data, the most likely people to go after would be Angie and Tam. Reyo is still suspicious.

Of course guilt should warrant suspicion. But we don't know who is guilty. So it has to be the other way around. Assume people who are suspicious are suspicious because they are guilty.
As I said, I find it highly unlikely that there were no mafia votes in the lynch yesterday.
It can't be me, and I trust Saint. That leaves You, Kamak or Turbo. And of those 3, you would be my first choice to lynch.
Turbo could only be guilty if mafia made a giant psycho thing after the investigators died by having one of their vanilla mafia go after the one of themselves with a gun to make them look 100% innocent. Very unlikely but a possibility considering it was right after mafia lucked out on night kills.
And Kamak... I really don't know. He could be a mafia mastermind or just a townie who is very active.

The ones who didn't vote for cori:
Guyperson voted for reyo and was the first vote. If you're guilty, he is likely innocent and the other way around.
Tammerath: I had my suspicions about him but those have subsided a little as you came more in the foreground.
Angelic: Dunno. Rather on the silent side most of the time I guess. I can barely remember what she posts about here.

3 of those are guilty. My first choice based on suspicion is you. Kamak is somewhere in there too, as is Guy and Tammerath.

The "You" I was talking about is Reyo btw.

Could you explain why Runes' innocence makes Reyo and Tam likely to be guilty? Is it because of suspicions that they've already stated?

I was trying to think critically about all of this but I've been out-data'd and can't make sense of it all at once. I suspect them too but I need more solid evidence before I put in a vote.

To be honest, given that Kamak said yesterday about the mafia "cutting cori off like a diseased arm" I'm not all that confident in still working under the assumption that mafia would never vote for other mafia. Hell, mafia might even suspect mafia at this point just to look innocent, and increase their chances of winning, even if it's just by one. I understand the need to lynch between those of us who are suspicious, but to be honest, the fact that I'm the most suspicious out of the people who voted for cori is faulty evidence at best.

For one, what was I supposed to do? It was between me and cori. Were you expecting me to vote for myself?

Second, between the four of us who are suspicious, I should actually be the least. Guy voted for me, who wasn't proven a mafia member like cori was at the end of the day, and angel and tam didn't even vote. I was the only one of the four who DID vote for the guy who was later established as a mafia member. Is it possible that I'm mafia? Technically, but your reasoning is very faulty.

I flipped the data. Those were the two that Runes was most wary of, and now that we know he's innocent, it's likely that they might be scum (though we don't know for sure because Runes wouldn't have solid evidence for his suspicions unlike a mafia who would know who's innocent).