Wow, nice shot, Granny. Chopstix, the cop probably doesn't wan't to out themselves until they absolutely have to since they'll be targeted almost immediately. They might try to help us without saying so though, so we gotta listen to everyone and think about what they're saying. Plus when the doctor visits them, the doctor becomes unsafe because the mafia can just watch the cop and find out who the doctor is and kill them too (that's what happened last game). That being said, wall-o-text inbound...
For the lookout scenario, I am honestly waaaay more suspicious of SPAM. Here's my reasoning:
He is very much capable of making this whole thing up. The results he had from his "watch" either could have easily been made up, or just stolen from the mafia's lookout. Neffy's reports seem to be more "random", because like all of us at the beginning of the game, he didn't have much to go on. In addition he knows the game pretty well and is clever like that.
SPAM said switching votes made Neffy suspicious, but Neffy gave good reasons for all of them.
Here's the complicated part that I had to think through. SPAM counterclaimed watcher after Neffy voted to lynch Kamak, who turned out the be guilty. This seems a lot like the mafia was thinking "oh crap they're gonna lynch one of our own, we gotta protect him", so SPAM stepped up and tried to fool us into thinking he was the watcher to protect Kamak. HOWEVER this wouldn't make sense since SPAM then suggested to lynch Kamak. So maybe then I thought Kamak would be the miller, but there's no way for the mafia to know since they don't have any classes that can determine someone's role. So maybe the mafia just got lucky, planned to get us to lynch an innocent person, but he turned out to be the miller. The problem with this theory because then, if Kamak turned out the be innocent, it would reveal SPAM as the liar and they would essentially be sacrificing him. It's possible, though, since they had the tailor and could cover up the death to confuse us. It's also still possible that even though the tailor is dead, maybe the suit he made could still be used the next day, not sure.
The other option is that Kamak was actually mafia. This option makes the most sense to me, since it lines up with Neffy's report that Kamak visited Galaxy. One member of the mafia has to visit someone in order to kill them, and if Kamak was a miller, there's no way he could have visited someone if he had no night actions as a miller. That means that SPAM pulling for Kamak's death is some kind of sacrifice play to get us to accuse Neffy and lose our watcher. They could (at the time) afford to lose a vanilla mafia. They wouldn't use the tailor on Kamak because they wanted to "prove SPAM right" and use this as a way to convince us that Neffy is guilty. However, as I pointed out earlier, Kamak being guilty doesn't necessarily prove Neffy wrong since he also accused Kamak; it was only SPAM who suggested that Kamak's status would "prove" anything, which must have been a mafia plan.
I'd like to hear SPAM's defense to all this (bring it), but I'm certain enough to vote lynch SPAM.
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