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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:47 pm 
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The Real Ghost Blues
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Awww, here goes!

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:43 pm 
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Still working on my information, but until it comes out, anyone have any new suspicions and reasons they'd like to air?

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:49 pm 
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Just Guyperson for overly emphasizing how he's villager? I dunno.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:57 pm 
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Oh also, anyone you trust, if you trust anyone at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:06 pm 
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I can trust Turbo, off the top of my head.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:11 pm 
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jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan
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I think I can trust Saint for the most part. He's been pretty helpful and thoughtful during the discussions.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:23 pm 
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Here is my raw data.

As for the key:

X's are named suspicions. Once you named a suspicion, it's left there on the chart (like Cori suspecting Saint, even though they don't now, so, sorry Cori). This is under the thought process that a mafia wouldn't suspect a fellow mafia and take it back. It'd be pretty dumb unless they were throwing them under the bus.

/'s are wariness. Not quite suspicious, but maybe things like "You know, I don't like how you said that..."

~ is kinda trust. I had so many of these until they got turned into X's and /'s :C

+ is outright stating some level of trust of innocence

-'s are N/A because you're not going to suspect yourself and what you think of yourself is stupid, stupid. What matters is what you claim to others.

Now, I'll be looking through the data and color coding "what if's" based on people being guilty and what their accusations would open up.

I hope that this chart will be suitable and up to your standards of impartiality. If you think I've overlooked anything, please throw quotes at me and we'll discuss it, but note that very vague wording will probably not be a good base for arguing something. Note that now that the chart is out, new claims probably can't be added for fear of mafia trying to purposefully skew data.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:29 pm 
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Initial observations of the data: No one really has a beef with Turbo, likely because of their claim of killing Crisp. We can reasonably assume that the data would support them being town.

D-vid and I have the most suspicion cast on. D-vid because of the failed lynch, and me because of D-vid's failed lynch and Alec's innocence.

Guy and Cori were the only ones to follow all 4 major votes straight ticket. In addition, Guy is the only one to vote on all 4 days so far.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:19 pm 
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These charts and lists are pretty neat you guys, but Saint's right. What do we do with all this info? Lynch whoever has more x's? Or from Reyo's list, be most suspicious of people who voted first or last? (I think it's funny that I was 5th to vote twice, if I wasn't late for the last day I wonder if I'd have gotten 5th again.) And I don't know what you mean about the "new claims can't be added" part, Kamak.

Also, I think I know why Guy's always saying he's a townie, but I'm not sure and I think I'll keep it to myself for now.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 11:29 pm 
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AngelicSongx wrote:
And I don't know what you mean about the "new claims can't be added" part, Kamak.

Basically, now that mafia know how the chart works, they could theoretically start throwing up data that makes it look like if they're scum, their fellow mafia are innocent, or townies are guilty. It skews the data a lot more, and leads to problems.

Anyways, I'm working on a useful form of the data I just posted put into words. Expect a very long post soon.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:15 am 
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Alright. Here's the colored chart to help with the flow of the rest of this post:

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If Kamak is guilty:
D-vid, Reyo, Cori, Guy, Angie, and Tam are likely innocent
was not Hooked Night 1
lynched a known innocent
helped try to lynch D-vid, a likely town.
Likely accomplices (and further assumptions):
Turbo: Suspects Kamak, didn’t kill Crisp, suspicions line up with Kamak
Saint: Is okay with Kamak, may not have been hooked, suspicions line up with Kamak
Runes: Is okay with Turbo, suggested crisp for random lynch, Suspicions line up with Kamak
Kinks: Who killed Crisp?

If Tam is guilty:
Kamak is likely innocent
lynched 2 known innocents
Likely accomplice:
Cori: Suspicions line up with Tam’s
Kinks: Not much to go on

If Angie is guilty:
D-vid, Cori, Runes, and Kamak are likely innocent
lynched a known innocent
helped try to lynch D-vid, a likely town.
Likely accomplice:
Reyo: suspicion (seriously, only 1?) lines up with Angie
Kinks: Not much to go on

If Runes is guilty:
Reyo and Tam are likely innocent
Lynched a known innocent
Likely accomplices:
Turbo: didn’t kill Crisp, suspicions line up with Runes
Kinks: Suggested a mafia for random lynch

If Guy is guilty:
D-vid is likely innocent
Is not a villager (duh)
Lynched 2 known innocents
Helped try to lynch D-vid, a likely town
Is trying to lynch a likely town today
Likely accomplices:
Kamak: was not hooked night 1, likely toss up between Turbo (suspects Kamak and Guy, shot Crisp), Saint (suspicions line up), and Runes (suspicions line up, suggested Crisp as random lynch) as other two mafia, suspicions line up with Guy’s 1 suspicion.
Kinks: Not much information known, problems with last two mafia

If Cori is guilty:
D-vid, Saint, Guy, Runes, Angie and Kamak are likely town
Lynched 2 known innocents
No readily available accomplices, though Turbo (suspects Reyo, shot Crisp), Reyo (lynched the same people as Cori), and Tam (kinda trusts Cori, lynched the same people as Cori)are likely starts due to being blank on chart.

Kinks: One of the suspected towns would have to be mafia since Turbo likely isn’t in league with them

If Reyo is guilty:
Kamak is likely innocent
Lynched 2 known innocents
Accomplices:
Not enough information
Kinks: not much information, very low key.

If Saint is guilty:
D-vid, Cori, Angie, and Tam are likely innocent
Was not hooked on Night 4
Helped try to lynch D-vid, a likely town
Accomplices:
Kamak: not hooked night 1, likely teamed up with Turbo (suspects Kamak, shot Crisp) and Runes (suspicions line up, suggested Crisp as random lynch) as other two mafia, suspicions line up with Saint
Kinks: Last two likely mafia are tenuous.

If D-vid is guilty:
Reyo, Guy, Runes, Tam, and Kamak are likely innocent
Lynched a known innocent
Likely accomplices:
Saint: not hooked night 4, likely teamed up with Kamak (not hooked night 1, suspects D-vid, suspects Angie, possibly teamed up with Runes (who D-vid Suspects)), suspects Angie.
Angie: Suspects D-vid, possibly teamed up with Reyo (Suspected by D-vid)
Kinks: Who the hell does D-vid work for (or with)?

If Turbo is guilty (Oh lord):
Reyo, Guy, and Kamak are likely innocent
Did not shoot Crisp (who did?)
Lynched a known innocent
Kinks: No known accomplices, WHO SHOT CRISP?

INCOMING OPINION:

Given this, there are 3 individuals with no red and one member with workable red (Turbo not being an accomplice gets rid of the last problem). We have 4 mafia members out there too. That means, according to this data, we have a solution that is PLAUSIBLE. The guilty party are:

Cori
Reyo
Tam
Angie

Which means the remaining town would be:

Turbo
D-vid
Saint
Runes
Guy
Kamak

We may have actually figured this out!

Please, let me know if you see any flaws here.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:29 am 
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I would like to point out that I have also suspected you, Kamak. Pretty openly, too.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:31 am 
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There was no definite statement as far as I saw, so I put a slash mark. I guess we can consider it an X, though it doesn't change much.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:34 am 
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jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan jackie chan
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Wow, Kamak, that's really impressive. I think this is a great resource (though I don't necessarily agree with all your statements, heehee). Now what's the next step? Do we all start deciding who to vote for? At this point, it won't be a stab in the dark anymore.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 4
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:38 am 
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So then, how is the voting going to proceed?

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