Kamak wrote:
Occam's Razor states that the answer with the fewest assumptions is often the most likely.
Why was the conclusion that IO was a dirty mafia lying about being the Drunken Sailor and trying implicate "innocent" Noff as part of Darkin's scheme more likely than IO telling the truth and being unsure whether to trust Noff based on Darkin's reaction?
At the very least you could have waited for Runes to confirm whether he got a drink, but instead you voted to off IO quickly.
I'm not convinced enough yet that you're guilty to set a lynch against you (IO seemed kinda suspicious but ended up innocent), but right now out of everyone, you're making me feel the most uneasy.
This is my train of thought:
"Evidence" for Noff being mutineer:
Noff points finger at Darkin -> Darkin claims Noff didn't follow mutineer discussion -> Noff not stopping lynch early enough -> Noff starting a bandwagon
"Evidence" for Noff being a pirate:
Noff points finger at Darkin -> Darkin gets keelhauled and is mutineer
"Evidence" for IO being a mutineer:
Follows weak "Noff being mutineer" chain -> Ignores fairly obvious innocent chain -> Asks who got drunk the last night to bolster her accusation
"Evidence" for IO being a pirate:
Claims drunken pirate role -> Gets confirmation later
It's worth noting that I didn't think IO would actually get backed up and I also posted at the same time as her. I didn't have time to sit through any discussion as I had to run to work right afterwards. I followed my gut feeling at that time and I guess it was wrong. I don't think IO is a mutineer and I removed my vote for her when I got home. Tell me, how is this suspicious to you?
On D-Vid. He flipped votes often during the first day. He votes for Darkin before the bandwagon really takes off, then he votes no-lynch soon after. Then he goes back to Darkin when the bandwagon really starts. This day he immediately points his finger to Noff. Afterwards he claims that he is sure IO is not mutineer and is correct. If this isn't suspicious to anybody, then I don't know what is.