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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:03 pm 
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Alec wrote:
...Honestly, I'm a bit surprised it's an overlap of only two people.
But yes. As I know that I am not scum, and Lotharu is the only other person who voted for both Dzelda and Benson, I am going to tentatively add my vote in for Lotharu, well aware of the fact that I'm probably next on the list, especially if Lotharu ends up being Town.


Looking back, I also want to agree with this point right here .

It isn't strange to anyone else that, with two lynching events where 8 and 7 people are needed to lynch both times, only two people are actually similar between the two lists of people? I realize this partially dooms me, but I'm actually going to half go back on my previous idea of looking at the similarities. It's actually seeming kinda strange that there was such a difference between Netherlands voted to lynch granny, and those to lynch dzelda...

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:06 pm 
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My main question is why those people who voted for dzelda DIDN'T then vote for granny, and then to a lesser extend why those who did vote for granny not vote for dzelda the day prior?

And how would the fact that granny was a power role fit into this?

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:34 pm 
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I don't think there's a way for the mafia to tell if anyone is a power role, except in the case of Gray Fox and there being no double homicide each night, and even that is subject to doctor/camo interfering with the data.
As for town there's even less of a chance to know what someone's power is, so that completely breaks the power role fitting in to this theory.

But this does raise the question, that if the mafia knows who GF is, and he should know the mafia knows because of eternal lockdown, why doesn't he tell us, the town, who he is? So far, we're the only people who still don't know who he is.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:52 pm 
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I'm really confused on where to go with the information we have, but I agree with Guyperson, there's no real way of anyone knowing who has what role in particular, besides Snake, so that line of thinking doesn't really go anywhere. The only real information we can get from the lists is who overlapped, since the mafia (knowing who isn't mafia) have the potential to jump on either bandwagon to get an easy kill. The overlap is the only thing that has definite suspicion, even though it's not very strong at all.

What's this about Gray Fox and lockdown though?

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:56 pm 
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Doesn't that mean it's also possible for the mafia members to be like "hey guys, let's not jump on this one?" which would explain the vast difference between the two lists of people...?

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:02 pm 
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I think that the mafia either completely (or most of them) didn't vote for one of the lynches. Possibly realizing that if they all voted every time that it would be pretty obvious.
Not saying that overlap isn't suspicious. Personally, I'd rather vote for SOMEBODY, feels like all this time is wasted with no votes.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:09 pm 
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Well why wouldn't they vote to lynch? I mean it'd be dumb for all of them to jump on one, but as far as filling in the required number to lynch per day I'm sure there's at least one mafia on both lists. Especially after the Alert went down, though the same goes for town on that one.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:09 pm 
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Great that no one died.

Who was targeted, though?

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:12 pm 
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FlyingGiraffe wrote:
Well why wouldn't they vote to lynch? I mean it'd be dumb for all of them to jump on one, but as far as filling in the required number to lynch per day I'm sure there's at least one mafia on both lists. Especially after the Alert went down, though the same goes for town on that one.

I didn't quite make that last sentence as clear as I'd like, I meant that it's likely that a mafia came in and filled out the necessary votes after the Alert sounded, so as to get the free kill before time ran out. The same logic can be applied to town though, so I'm not sure if that's really a good place to look.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:18 pm 
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Oh wow!

I just realized my name is correct on the player list!

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:49 pm 
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@giraffe. They wouldn't do it because you thought to post that thought process. No one thinks they'd do it that way, making it a good idea to do it to look not suspicious.

Need Runes4 wrote:
Great that no one died.

Who was targeted, though?


Me and. Kamak, it's looking like.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:36 pm 
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Forgive me, I'm still not exactly seeing your rationale, Reyo. So they wouldn't do it because it'd be too obvious? They'd be more likely to join sooner on the bandwagon, if at all?

Also wait, when did Kamak say he was targeted?

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:48 pm 
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FlyingGiraffe wrote:
Forgive me, I'm still not exactly seeing your rationale, Reyo. So they wouldn't do it because it'd be too obvious? They'd be more likely to join sooner on the bandwagon, if at all?

Also wait, when did Kamak say he was targeted?


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Also, yes, that's exactly why they wouldn't do it, because you think they would. Because they'd look back and say "see, I didn't do that, therefore I'm innocent".

It's why dzelda was so eager about getting lynched, because then we'd be able to predict who was mafia based on who did and who didn't vote to lynch.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:50 pm 
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If the mafia voted to lynch most of the time, it would be really obvious because these 4 or 5 people are always voting the same thing, so, if they were smart (which sadly it seems like it, with only 2 same voters) they would space out who votes for who.

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 Post subject: Re: Mafia Gear Solid - DAY 4
PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:00 pm 
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Alright, that makes sense. (also thanks Reyo, I don't know how I missed that post)

So in that case, should we spend today looking more at people who aren't voting at all/are keeping low profiles?

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