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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:48 pm 
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I don't really see how the information I've brought up makes me suspicious, to be honest. I got everything from previous posts in this thread.

And really, I'm suspicious of everyone. I'm not quite as wary of Runes as I am of Alec, since Alec's been acting almost just like Crisp was. He gave an alibi for the stuff he did, but in a game like this, alibis are easy to fudge.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:51 pm 
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Reyo wrote:
Slob's lynching, while unfortunate, was still necessary. We established that any sort of lynch we did that day was a crapshoot since we lost both of our investigative roles. Let's just be glad we did so with SOME kind of criteria and didn't just lynch because "welp we gotta kill someone le's do it!" Luckily, we have a bit more to work on to make it less of a crapshoot.

Kamak, you seem to be the person the most people trust right now, so I'm thinking maybe you should lead the investigative party against somebody, especially since your thoughts are the most organized.


Except the criteria to lynch Slob was bad reasoning. Inactive players, even though they don't contribute to the discussion, still contribute to our numbers.

We're in the process of investigating right now. We have to look at how people have acted throughout the thread, and before and after night events occured. I need to look more deeply into things myself, it'll take a little time, but we do have leads this time around.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:06 pm 
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At the risk of painting a target on myself I'm going to go ahead and say that I share Kamak's suspicions of Cori and Angelic. D-vid I'm not so sure about, but it wouldn't surprise me if he were mafia, his actions could be consistent with those of a mafia member.

My reasoning is that they were both the ones to really set the bandwagon in motion to lynch Slob. Cori was the first one to suggest the idea that he was being silent on purpose, which we still don't even know to be true. On the other hand, Angelic appeared impatient, which is a good way to push a bandwagon along.

I do want to clarify some stuff though. Cori, why were you wary of Runes again?

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:12 pm 
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A few things I've found from going back through the thread:

Cori wrote:
Kamak just said he 'got lucky' which could have been taken a few different ways.

It could've meant that he was an inspector and found a guilty party but since he's NOT an inspector I'm guessing the most likely thing is he got hooked.


This struck me as a bit odd when I first read it, I mean, I posted that I got lucky, but it was strange that it was instantly taken to be me being hooked. Maybe I was lucky to not die? Maybe I was lucky because I had a gun to protect myself? This just stuck out to me, though I understood that it was also possible that someone got the message without me having to beat them over the head with it.

Cori wrote:
Yeah, I would be tempted to suggest lynching an inactive player.

But the problem is, I looked back at the last few pages and Supaaku didn't...really say anything in the thread on the first day. I know he might have been keeping quiet to avoid drawing attention to himself, being the inspector, but I feel like in doing so he made himself a target...

So what if the 'inactive' person we decide to lynch has a power role as well? We want our power roles to stay hidden so the mafia doesn't find them, but the only way for them to protect themselves if a random lynch got aimed their way would be to admit their role.


Cori wrote:
Yeah I agree with Runes that we need to get somewhere BUT I don't think we should go for the 'quiet' people anymore.

Is there another reason you want to lynch him?


Cori seemed hesitant to lynch an inactive person. It could have been out of fear that a mafia member was hit, but this honestly makes a lot of sense for the town too. Power roles usually stay quiet, so killing them only helps the mafia. If Cori was mafia, it'd be best if the power roles outed themselves, or to cast blame on the quiet ones in the hpes of hitting the doctor or gunsmith. Even so, Cori went to lynch Slob. Maybe there was a silent mafia member that could have been hit, and Cori wasn't willing to take that risk until a lynch started against a townie.

Also, Cori originally voted undecided despite the town going after Reyo. That would seem odd for a mafia.

Even so, there's a lot of variables to consider with Cori. They could be manipulative scum, or townie trying to do their best and just seeming a bit odd in the process.

AngelicSongx wrote:
We aren't doomed yet. (Though, yeesh both of them dieing one after another, whyyy) I don't know who is or isn't suspicious. I will however jump on any bandwagon (I mean, unless after further investigation they turn up innocent), because we really need a mafia gone.

Who is there to pick from who hasn't been very active anyway?


Song was willing to jump on any bandwagon that started up, and wanted to pick from the inactives, which wasn't exactly the best way to scumhunt (though everyone was doing it). Even so, when the Reyo bandwagon was starting, she voted undecided (though, we don't yet know if Reyo is actually innocent), despite this claim of jumping on anything. In light of this, I'm not as convinced that she's scum, but I still have my eye on her.

This leads me to D-vid.

D-vid was against using the votes as a factor of scumhunting, despite the fact that we know that scum besides Crisp must have been rocking the vote in some way, and it was likely to be for Slob to get rid of them.

D-vid also insisted on the possibility that the mafia targetted Turbo to protect Reyo, as the town would think it's too obvious that Turbo was killed after accusing Reyo, and while it's certainly a possibility (especially if Reyo and the mafia suspected Turbo of a power role that needed to be dealt with even if Reyo got hit in the crossfire), D-vid's insistence was rather strange.

Plus, D-vid wanted us to vote on evidence, but occasionally prodded the town from investigating further:

D-vid wrote:
Since there's no way of knowing which it was, ignore it for now but keep it in mind?


Also, he's repeatedly not wanted the day to drag on:

D-vid wrote:
I'd rather we not have every day last 5 days.
Because of that
Lynch Cynical Slob
like you said before, because laying low.


D-vid wrote:
And I think our time is starting to run out again. And a No Lynch is out of question.


Seems to be in a bit of a hurry...

I'd like thoughts on my train of thought though.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:20 pm 
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I did think Cynic was being silent on purpose around the end of the day, but I didn't start the bandwagon on him. The reason I was suspicious of Runes for a while is because he was the one who first voted for Cynic, with his reason being 'we need to get somewhere'. His other posts that day were all about how he just wanted to lynch someone. He reeeeeaally wanted someone's head on a pike.

Of course, when Cynic was lynched he turned out to be innocent, so I looked back at Runes because he was the first to vote for him.

And yeah, Kamak, I sort of assumed you got hooked when I posted that. I mean, that's what I assumed 'getting lucky' meant. The gun thing didn't occur to me.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:23 pm 
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Now, I'm sick and not in the best of decision making moods, but from what I understood of all that, Angel and D-vid are the most suspicious while Cori and Reyo are semi suspicious. Since I don't actually remember how many days we have to vote, I say LYNCH VID.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:28 pm 
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All I would have to say, Kamak, is that "Seeming a bit odd" isn't much of a grounds to consider someone Mafia (heck, like me last game).
However, I think you're doing a good job analyzing people's reactions.

I can't remember exactly when we have to vote by, but I've learned my lesson about voting just to end the day (sorry Cynic). I'll continue to watch the thread, and cast final judgement when time is almost up.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:32 pm 
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SaintCrazy wrote:
Reyo wrote:
Slob's lynching, while unfortunate, was still necessary. We established that any sort of lynch we did that day was a crapshoot since we lost both of our investigative roles. Let's just be glad we did so with SOME kind of criteria and didn't just lynch because "welp we gotta kill someone le's do it!" Luckily, we have a bit more to work on to make it less of a crapshoot.

Kamak, you seem to be the person the most people trust right now, so I'm thinking maybe you should lead the investigative party against somebody, especially since your thoughts are the most organized.


Except the criteria to lynch Slob was bad reasoning. Inactive players, even though they don't contribute to the discussion, still contribute to our numbers.

We're in the process of investigating right now. We have to look at how people have acted throughout the thread, and before and after night events occured. I need to look more deeply into things myself, it'll take a little time, but we do have leads this time around.


Mafia members have one of two routes to trying and look innocent. The first is to go all out and lead the discussion, being so engrossed in the discussion no one thinks to even consider them, and the second is to go completely under the radar, where people forget they're even playing the game. Slob, having not said anything after his initial "I'll join" comment, was displaying behavior of the later. So, we established we'd to lynch someone, and that we needed to at least lynch someone who was at least displaying mafia esque behavior, behavior slob was diaplaying. Yes, given slob was innocent, he was obviously the wrong one to lynch, but we didn't know that until after we lynched.

It sounds like we're trying to give into historian fallacy to justify pouncing on people who voted for slob. It's completely understandable to say some of the people who voted for him were mafia, but given the situation we can't persecute anyone on just the fact that they voted to lynch.

I know you suggested we lynch Tam. Why?

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:56 pm 
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What Reyo said.
And I didn't want to end the day, the day would have ended either way. I wanted to at least have a chance at hitting a mafia instead of a "No Lynch" end of the day.
Cause as I said before. a no lynch only helps mafia cause they don't even have to do anything about it. If I was mafia, I could have just stayed undecided in the hopes of getting the day to end with no one being any smarter than before.
And I don't see that I "insisted" on that weird backwards psychology scheme thing anywhere. I mentioned the possibility once or twice. Later I even said that Turbo might be lying about being the gun owner who shot crisp for some reason, which would be something else entirely.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:04 am 
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D-vid wrote:
Later I even said that Turbo might be lying about being the gun owner who shot crisp for some reason, which would be something else entirely.

If I was lying, somebody would have countered it by now. Either the gunsmith would have said "hey i never gave you a gun" or the person who had their gun used would have said "youre lying it was my gun"
As it is, neither of those things have happened, and I can't think of a reason why somebody would counterclaim this late after the fact aside to cast suspicion on me. There are only 2 people with guns, though, and one of them is the gunsmith, so the pool of counterclaiming is small.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:06 am 
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Yeah, I was trying to say that I'm just voicing a lot of possibilities.

Also, how exactly do you know the gunsmith has a gun?

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:07 am 
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They'd be stupid not to give themselves one. I'm only assuming, however. It's entirely possible that they don't.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:12 am 
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It would be completely, and idioticly altruistic of him to not give himself a gun and instead give it to someone else. I know it's the first thing I'd do.

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:14 am 
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I don't know, sometimes the gunsmith doesn't think to give themselves a gun. Or they don't know they can.

(I was a gunsmith once and I never gave myself a gun. I am kind of a dum-dum :pseudo: )

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 Post subject: Re: Mocha Mafia - DAY 3
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:19 am 
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@Reyo: That's a fairly good reasoning, but there's still a huge chance that a player is inactive for their own non-mafia reasons. It's risky, and I would've preferred better reasoning.

This is the third time I've had to explain my vote for Tammerath before.

Page 9:
Quote:
After looking back through the thread, my current suspicion is towards Tammerath. The only thing he has contributed to the discussion is an eagerness to lynch and get the day over with. It's understandable, but he has contributed nothing to the discussion of who might be guilty or innocent, or what strategies we should take. Lynching is a big risk, and I would rather have a reason for who I'd pick, instead of basically taking a random shot out of impatience. This isn't just a knee-jerk reaction to his lynch vote either, I was just looking at trends in what people have said so far.

It's not much to go on, I know, but I don't like the idea of lynching inactives either, if they havent had a chance to say anything.

In case I don't have the chance to change my mind, my vote is Lynch Tammerath.


Page 12:
Quote:
I voted for Tammerath largely because of his behavior throughout the thread, which, in light of Crisp's death, actually seems similar to Crisp's behavior. He has played mostly passively, only jumping in to join bandwagons in order to end the day faster.


Basically it was that he only voted in bandwagons and otherwise didn't discuss much.

@D-vid: Remember that mafia are going to want to kill off as many villagers as possible, either through night kills or, if they can get away with it, by leading villager lynches. With their numbers it wouldn't be hard. A no lynch does help mafia, but so does a lynched villager.

Quick question, why does it matter if the gunsmith has a gun, exactly? Nobody has challenged Turbo's story so far, I highly doubt he'd be able to get away with it if he was lying.
(If you know he is, anyone, now would be a good time to say so)

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